On Saturday, 8 March 2025, Brentford host Aston Villa at the Gtech Community Stadium, aiming to close the four-point gap separating them in the Premier League table .
Brentford enter the fixture with a solid recent run: undefeated in four of their last five league outings, including wins against Leicester, West Ham, and Crystal Palace, plus a draw with Everton . However, their home form tells a different story—they’ve not won in their last six Premier League games on home turf .
Villa come off a convincing 3–1 Champions League win over Club Brugge, and a 2–0 FA Cup victory over Cardiff, recovering from a heavy 4–1 league defeat at Crystal Palace . Yet, they continue to struggle away from home, registering just one win in their last nine Premier League away matches .
Head-to-Head & Key Stats
Historically, Villa hold the edge—they remain unbeaten in their last six meetings with Brentford . But Opta’s simulations still favor Brentford, giving them a 42.6% chance to win, compared to 32.9% for Villa and 24.6% for a draw .
Brentford’s shot conversion rate is a league-high 15.2%, with the best xG per shot (0.14)—a sign of their offensive efficiency . Meanwhile, the match is widely tipped for goals: many previews expect both teams to score and predict over 2.5 goals overall .
Players to Watch
Ollie Watkins (Villa): The striker remains a potent threat, having scored in each of his last three meetings with Brentford. His experience and finishing make him a constant danger .
Youri Tielemans (Villa): Operates as a box-to-box or number-10 midfielder with elite passing and ball recovery—he’s become indispensable under Unai Emery .
Brentford’s Attack: While specific names aren’t highlighted in recent previews, their outstanding shot conversion and xG per shot reflect a potent attacking unit
Prediction
All signals point to an open, high-scoring encounter. Given Brentford’s inefficacy at home and Villa’s poor away record—even post-European fixtures—a 2–2 draw seems the most balanced outcome . Opta’s modeling leans slightly toward Brentford, but probabilities and form suggest Villa have enough to avoid defeat.
Summary
Brentford will rely on their home-firepower and clinical finishing. Villa counter with tactical maturity and key performances from Watkins and Tielemans. A lively 2–2 draw feels most likely.
