Italy vs Estonia: Qualifying Clash at Gewiss Stadium
On Friday, September 5, 2025, Italy face Estonia at the Gewiss Stadium in their opening Group I fixture for World Cup 2026 qualification. The Azzurri, under Gattuso, look to reset and bounce back quickly, while Estonia aim to defy expectations on the road.
Match Context & Stakes
Italy are firm favourites, aiming to regain control after a rocky start. Estonia, on the other hand, have struggled so far and will need resilience and structure to stay competitive. It’s a classic David vs Goliath scenario—but football can always surprise.
Team News & Key Stats
Italy dominated their last outing with a 2–0 win over Moldova, showing attacking intent and control. Top performers include Raspadori and Cambiaso. The Azzurri averaged strong possession and active goal threats.
Estonia’s last game was a narrow 1–0 loss to Norway. Their recent form shows defensive frailty: low possession, few attempts, and no goals.
Group standings highlight:
Italy: 1 win, 1 loss, 2:3 goal difference, 3 points
Estonia: 1 win, 3 losses, 5:8 goal difference, 3 points
Correct Score & Odds
A correct score of Italy 2–0 Estonia is offered at attractive odds (6.75). The prediction aligns with Italy’s likely dominance but controlled finishing.
Predicted Lineups
| Italy (4-2-3-1) | Estonia (4-4-1-1) |
|---|---|
| GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma | GK: Karl Hein |
| RB: Giovanni Di Lorenzo | RB: Rasmus Peetson |
| CB: Alessandro Bastoni | CB: Maksim Paskotsi |
| CB: Riccardo Calafiori | CB: Maerten Kuusk |
| LB: Federico Dimarco | LB: Michael Schjoenning-Larsen |
| CM: Nicolo Barella | RM: Mattias Kaeit |
| CM: Sandro Tonali | CM: Kevor Palumets |
| RW: Matteo Politano | CM: Rocco Shein |
| CAM: Moise Kean | LW: Ioan Yakovlev |
| LW: Mattia Zaccagni | ST: Rauno Sappinen |
| ST: Mateo Retegui |
Betting Insight & Expert Prediction
Asian Handicap: Estonia at +3 is recommended—it has been covered consistently in recent away games.
Both Teams to Score: No, favored given Estonia’s struggle to score and Italy’s likelihood of a clean sheet.
Bet Builder Suggestion: Estonia +3 AH + BTTS No + Retegui under 1.5 shots on target.
| Market | Selection |
|---|---|
| Correct Score | Italy 2-0 Estonia |
| Asian Handicap | Estonia +3 |
| Both Teams to Score (BTTS) | No |
| Value Bet Combination | Estonia +3 + BTTS No + Retegui TS < 1.5 |
Conclusion
Italy should assert control and secure a 2–0 win, as the odds suggest. However, Estonia’s +3 handicap offers a good value cushion should margins stay tight. Whether you’re setting up a bet builder or simply previewing the match, this clash promises structure, disciplined defending, and tactical nuance.
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